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Introduction to USD/CAD

The USD CAD currency pair—commonly known as the Loonie—is one of the most actively traded major FX pairs. It reflects the economic interplay between the world’s largest economy and one of the most resource-rich nations. Traders closely monitor USD/CAD because of its strong correlation with oil prices, given Canada’s position as a major crude exporter. Understanding USD/CAD movement provides deeper insights into market sentiment, commodity influence, and North American economic conditions.

USD CAD Market Overview

USD/CAD continues to trade under bearish pressure, influenced by shifting expectations around upcoming US economic data and ongoing volatility in crude oil inventories that impact the Canadian Dollar. Key US labor releases—NFP, Unemployment Rate, and labor cost data—have been delayed to March 6, 2026, adding uncertainty to the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Recent speeches from FOMC members Jeffrey Schmid and Michelle Bowman have also kept the US Dollar sensitive to hawkish signals. On the Canadian side, Building Permits and the upcoming BOC Minutes on April 1, 2026, may offer clearer insight into domestic economic strength. With EIA Crude Stock data due on February 19, 2026, traders should expect additional volatility in USD/CAD as energy markets react.

USDCAD Technical Analysis

On the daily timeframe, USD/CAD has clearly respected a well-defined bearish channel after rejecting a major resistance zone, reinforcing the broader downward trend. The price is currently hovering around the mid-line of the descending channel, suggesting indecision but with a bearish bias intact. The Accelerator Oscillator shows weakening bullish momentum, supporting the probability of renewed downside continuation. Meanwhile, the Aroon indicator signals a prevailing downtrend, with Aroon Down maintaining dominance over Aroon Up—indicating persistent selling pressure. Considering the chart structure and the presence of hidden bearish divergence, USD/CAD may extend its decline toward the lower boundary of the channel, especially if fundamental data continues to favor the Canadian Dollar or weaken the US Dollar.

Final Words about USD vs CAD

Overall, USD/CAD remains in a technically and fundamentally bearish environment, with strong confluence between price action, momentum indicators, and macro-economic drivers. Traders should pay close attention to upcoming US labor data, FOMC member speeches, and crude oil inventory releases, as these factors have historically created sizable volatility in the pair. As long as the price stays below the mid-channel line and continues forming lower highs, the bearish trajectory remains the more likely scenario. Nonetheless, risk management is essential, as any unexpected hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve or sudden drops in oil prices could temporarily strengthen the US Dollar. For now, the leaning bias continues to favor further downside movement in USD/CAD.

Disclaimer: This USDCAD analysis, provided by Unitedpips, is for informational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Always conduct your own Forex analysis before making any trading decisions.