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Introduction to EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair is one of the most actively traded pairs in the forex market, reflecting the exchange rate between the Euro (EUR) and the US Dollar (USD). The pair is influenced by various economic indicators, central bank policies, and geopolitical events, making it essential for traders to stay informed about these factors to anticipate potential price movements.

EUR/USD Market Overview

On June 3, 2024, the EUR/USD pair is being influenced by several key economic data releases. In the Eurozone, the Retail Sales report is a significant indicator, with an expected increase of 0.3%. A result higher than expected could bolster the Euro. Other moderate-impact data, such as German Factory Orders, Eurozone GDP, and various CPI figures, are also on the docket. From the US, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report and Unemployment Rate are crucial, with the NFP forecasted at 200K, indicating steady job growth that could strengthen the USD.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has been exhibiting a bearish trend on the H4 chart. Despite a recent retracement, the price remains above critical support levels, which could suggest further downward movement. The recent price action shows a phase of consolidation, with the price moving toward the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, signaling continued bearish sentiment.

Key Technical Indicators

– Ichimoku Cloud: The Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows a bearish signal, with the last cloud appearing red, indicating a negative outlook. Both the Tenkan-sen (conversion line) and Kijun-sen (base line) are positioned below the candles, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

– MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line is below the histogram, signaling bearish momentum. The increasing bearish momentum in the histogram suggests the likelihood of further declines.

– Elliott Wave Analysis: The Elliott Wave analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair is in a corrective phase. The current wave structure suggests that the pair might continue its downward trajectory before completing the correction.

Support and Resistance Levels

– Support Levels: Immediate support is located at 1.0800, aligning with recent price action and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku Cloud. Further support can be found at 1.0750, which corresponds with previous swing lows and represents a crucial level for potential price declines.

– Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is at 1.0900, where recent highs align with the upper Bollinger Band. A more significant resistance level is at 1.0950, a recent peak and psychological level that could be challenging for the pair to surpass.

Final Words About EUR vs. USD

The EUR/USD pair on the H4 chart exhibits a predominantly bearish trend with temporary consolidation phases. Key technical indicators such as the Ichimoku Cloud, MACD, and Elliott Wave analysis support the likelihood of continued downward movement. Traders should closely monitor upcoming economic data releases from the Eurozone and the US, as they could introduce volatility and influence the pair’s direction. Adopting a cautious approach and staying informed about the latest market developments is crucial for making well-informed trading decisions.

Disclaimer: The provided EUR/USD analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders should conduct their own research and analysis before making any trading decisions. Market conditions can change rapidly, and it is essential to stay updated with the latest information.